NYMEX, WTI Jump on Shale Slow Down & Inventory Concerns

Posted by Kelly Burke on May 12, 2015 7:11:00 PM

Barrels of oil overlaid on a line graph

The NYMEX shot up again today, after trending slightly downward the past several sessions. Last week saw Brent over $65/bbl and today WTI settled out +1.50 to 60.75, over the $60/bbl benchmark we've all been watching for.

ULSD closed up +.0535 to 1.9989, while RBOB shot up over the $2 line again with a gain of +.0529 to settle at 2.0393. 

Our friends at OPEC came out earlier this week to announce they saw no increase in oil prices on the horizon, given they see no decrease in production, and denied reports that there was consideration of reinstituting production quotas to boost prices. This pumped the brakes on the rally temporarily, and resulted in a pummeling of energy stocks in the S&P in the process - most notably Exxon and Chevron shares (Both companies saw gains today, however, on the price reversal).

So what happened today?

Most analysts are crediting a weaker dollar in combination with the monthly drilling report that indicates some slow down in shale production domestically. The EIA projected that output from major shale plays will drop by some 86K bpd in June.

Analysts also expect to see draws in crude on tommorows EIA inventories report, which is almost always good for a few cents worth of upward pressure on the market - at least if they are correct, that is.

Outside of drilling and supply concerns, we once again saw resumed airstrikes in Yemen on the same day a cease-fire was to be discussed.

Deja vu, anyone?

Stay tuned!

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Topics: Bull Market, RBOB, WTI Crude, stock market, ulsd, yemen

Bulls Remain in Control of Markets

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 16, 2013 5:45:00 PM

July 16th - Energy Bulls showed their muscle today by posting solid gains after an ever so slight dip yesterday.  On the back of an early weak dollar, RBOB and HO were up almost .03 cents in the early morning.  After what appeared to be some resistance touching, futures slid to even shortly after Open outcry, even posting some negative numbers.  The slide was short-lived as traders began to focus on this weeks inventory levels that are projected to show a draw of roughly 3mbls of Crude, signaling a rising demand.  Small refinery news and traders rolling positions into AUG also contributed to today's rise.   Personally, I have said for months that HO is stuck in this large new normal range of 2.75 to 3.05, being at the top of that range now, one has to speculate at how much higher we can go.  At the close, Crude was able to shed some pounds finishing down .32 to $106.00, HO added .0208 to $3.0469 and RBOB gained .0314 to $3.1343.  RBOB appears to be driving the market so Wednesdays price action will be intresting.

Energy market heat chart

RBOB Close
               CLOSE         CHANGE        
 AUG   3.1343         +.0314
SEP   3.0530         +.0227
OCT   2.8702       +.0186
NOV    2.8074        +.0137
DEC    2.7655       +.0094
JAN    2.7437       +.0057
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
AUG    3.0469       +.0208
SEP    3.0464       +.0186
OCT    3.0449       +.0167
NOV    3.0426      +.0138
DEC    3.0401       +.0113
JAN    3.0382       +.0091

 

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Topics: Dollar Struggles, Bull Market, Daily Heating Chart, RBOB

Futures Slip with Mixed Inventory Report

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Oct 26, 2011 8:26:00 PM

Much of the morning session saw values bounce around from positive to negative as pre DOE posturing held court.  Also holding weight was the curiosity factor of what was going to happen at the European Summit to discuss the ongoing debt issue.  As the news of a Crude build of 4.7mbl, a Distillate draw of 4.3mbl and a Gasoline draw of 1.4mbl hit the wires the initial reaction was bearish as the huge glut of Crude took center stage.  That was short lived as many looked to distillates as the leading pit and another large draw has now put distillates stocks smack dab in the middle of the 10 year range.  Over the past several weeks we have operated on the higher end of that range.  The selling only hit the floor with about 30 minutes left in the session as continued optimism remained that a long term solution to Europe's debt crisis will be agreed upon.  Signs pointed that way as earlier in the day, Germany, a key figure in the deal, voted to add more to its growing rescue fund.  An effort in that other nations will follow.  While we still are on the high end of the range, and a solid down day is refreshing, nothing out there is a clear signal that we are ripe for another pull back.  Again, the HEAT pit appears to be comfortable trading in the wide range from 2.70 to 3.10.  At the close, Crude lost $2.97 to $90.20, RBOB fell .0482 to $2.6516 and HEAT lost .0344 to $3.0158. 
heat map
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
NOV    26516       -.0482
DEC    26253      -.0494
JAN    26111      -.0474
FEB   26049      -.0445
MAR   26075      -.0416
APR    27387      -.0374
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
NOV    30158     -.0344
DEC   30210      -.0302
JAN   30101       -.0304
FEB   29929      -.0316
MAR   29663     -.0323
APR   29260      -.0312
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Topics: Commodities, European Economy, Greece Bailout, Bull Market, CRUDE

Bulls remain in control ahead of Inventory Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 5, 2011 1:02:00 PM

What appeared to be a solid retreat this morning turned into another solid up day for the NYMEX.  The early morning session had both pits down over two cents in electronic trading as word of a Chinese rate hike hit the wires and a possible slow down in demand for the worlds second largest consumers.  Additionally minutes from last month FED Reserve meeting realeased today noted several members voicing concern over the rapidly rising energy costs and the effects that would have on the growth pattern of the country.  But by mid morning, sentiment had changed with news once again surfacing that the oil port town of Brega in Libya was back in control of loyalist forces.  Intensified fighting between France and Ivory Coast over the areas rightful President also pushed prices higher as the growing fear of worldly strife has many investors searching for the one investment that is insulated.  At the close, Crude actually fell .13 to $108.34 while RBOB jumped another .0325 to $3.2013 and HEAT topped out at $3.1850 up .0136.

Daily HEAT Chart
heat chart
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Topics: CRUDE falls, Libya, Bull Market, Daily Heating Chart

NYMEX continues rally higher

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 2, 2010 9:53:00 PM

Speaking with an associate today we were amazed to both discover that last year at this time we over 40 cents less than now.  But that is ancient history.  Today continued yesterdays skyrocketing session that had pits touching year high levels yet again.  With Bulls jumping on reports of “Crude averaging $100 over the next year” and “home sales up 10%” it gives the much needed ammunition to buy the rumor and sell the fact.  Not that we are in the same scenario as last April, but remember HEAT touched 2.50 and then proceeded to fall to under $2, again, ancient history.  Fundamental factors appear to be creeping into the bullish sentiment.  Spot gasoline is said to be in short supply in the Northeast due to Venezuela refinery issues and distillates are being fueled by a brash of cold air heading into the Northeast.  Its hard to understand the weather issue as I still haven’t put a winter coat on.  At the close, Crude added $1.25 to $88 even.  RBOB soared another .0549 to $2.3553 and HEAT bolstered another .0490 to close at $2.4546.  Time to close our eyes and hope for a fall.

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Topics: Bull Market, CRUDE, The Market, NYMEX, Venezuela Refinery

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