NYMEX continues higher ahead of DOE data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Feb 7, 2012 5:40:00 PM

With the Heating oil pit tacking on over 15 cents in just under a week, many are scratching their heads as to why.  In a winter that has seen more 50 degree days than teens, most would assume the Heat pits to be tanking.  As with the case with these types of patterns, shifts in the jet stream have caused the Northeast to have a mild winter yet Europe is caught in a bitterly cold spell for some time.  Brent Crude has maintained its $20 premium to its cousin WTI, thus explaining the HO to WTI disconnect.  As shown below, that disconnect has been in place most of the year.   Longer term, you may start to see more US vessels head to European markets, signaling some shortfalls down the road.  Many are still on edge as Greece is continuing to try and find a way to pay off creditors and with Iran and Israel in a stare down, the tightening supplies across the pond are having nothing but bullish affects on the trade.  At the close, Crude added $1.50 to $98.41, RBOB slipped .0004 to $2.9275 and HO gained another .0343 to $3.1909.  Again we have touched the top of the 18 month range for HO, then next 30 days have typically seen a healthy pull back.  But again, what is typical anymore?

Continuation crude chart, continuation heating oil chart, RBOB continuation chart, continuation natural gas chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
MAR    29275      -.0004
APR    30674      +.0000
MAY   30572     -.0002
JUN     30296       +.0002
JUL     29951       +.0009
AUG    29590       +.0014
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAR    31909      +.0343
APR     31595      +.0342
MAY    31294      +.0318
JUN    31080      +.0288
JUL     31017     +.0268
AUG     31014      +.0246

Topics: Iran, European Economy, CRUDE

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