Energy Market Updates

Bullish DOE Report Causes Futures Slide

A few days away from the "official" start of the driving season saw gas prices tumble.... Or at least that what the news outlets will be saying.  Futures corrected today as the DOE report showed a strong 3mbl build while the Trade expected 1m gallon draw.  Distillates and Crude were somewhat bearish showing draws of 1.1mbl and 338k respectively.    Losses could have been much steeper, but selling appeared to be tempered by the fact that most believe the FED will continue stimulus measures until a clear sign of economic improvements.  The assumption is that should the FED start to pull back their measures, it could cause a significant sell off as people get rid of long positions.  HEAT still seems content be range bound between 3.10 and 2.75, with a tighter range of 2.85 to 2.95.  At the close, Crude fell $1.90 to $94.28, RBOB lost .0264 to $2.8194 and HEAT took the brunt of the hit dropping .0554 to $2.8736, which is surprising since the builds were seen in Gas.

 

 

RBOB Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
JUN    2.8194       -.0264
JUL    2.8122       -.0257
AUG    2.7950       -.0252
SEP    2.7705       -.0260
OCT    2.6332       -.0273
NOV    2.6060       -.0283
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
JUN    2.8736       -.0554
JUL    2.8687       -.0506
AUG    2.8753       -.0472
SEP    2.8844       -.0447
OCT    2.8925       -.0426
NOV    2.8976       -.0408
5-22 heat chart
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Futures Turn on Stimulus Talk

Much of what we view every day in this business is based primarily on expectations and ultimately, reality.  Today was precisely one of those days.  While most expected slightly bearish inventory numbers, the news at 10:30 that showed Gasoline's up 2.6mbl and Distillates up 2.3mbl well beat expectations of builds of 700k and 800k respectively.  Pits reacted by selling off over four cents in each HO and RBOB.  With Crude showing a draw of 600k barrels while many expected a build of the same amount, you had to think how long the fall would last.  At the same time, the European Zone released figures that showed its GDP fell for the sixth straight quarter.  Soon talk of more FED stimulus took over the trade and the buy back gained momentum.  From what started out as a solid down day, turned on the expectation of what we think might happen, thus pushing the NYMEX higher by the closing bell.  At the close, Crude gain .09 to $94.30, HEAT added .0071 to $2.8801 and RBOB led the charge jumping .0294 to $2.8670, almost .10 higher than the intraday low.... Looks like some expect a busy driving season.

 

RBOB Close
      Close            Change
JUN    2.8670       +.0294
JUL    2.8480       +.0276
AUG    2.8192       +.0260
SEP    2.7853       +.0247
OCT    2.6407       +.0190
NOV    2.6130       +.0166
HEAT Close
       Close            Change
JUN    2.8801       +.0071
JUL    2.8742       +.0080
AUG    2.8797       +.0095
SEP    2.8892       +.0107
OCT    2.8977       +.0111
NOV    2.9031       +.0107
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NYMEX Makes an About-Face on Jobs Report

After starting the early morning in the red, Markets made an about face mid morning as new economic news hit the wires. The Jobs report showed an additional 165,000 jobs were added last month, above the 148k expected. That pushed unemployment down to roughly 7.5%, additionally the magic pencil revised March and February numbers up by a combined 60k jobs. While these are encouraging numbers for the US workforce, most agree that the World market may not be as optimistic. A well supplied market and growing concern over an already fragile European Zone, which today cut forward growth rates, has limited the upside to the NYMEX over the last several sessions. Additionally, China is expected to report sluggish manufacturing rates next week. As the day went on, distillate markets cooled off while gasoline still stayed strong. Look for next week to be much of the same as positions look to be solidified as we move towards the summer driving hype. At the close, Crude added $1.62 to $95.61, HEAT gained .0289 $2.8844, and RBOB jumped .0448 to $2.8254

 

DAILY HEAT CHART

Daily heat chart

RBOB Close
CLOSE CHANGE
JUN 2.8254 +.0448
JUL 2.8072 +.0418
AUG 2.7817 +.0399
SEP 2.7515 +.0394
OCT 2.6101 +.0392
NOV 2.5867 +.0376
HEAT Close
CLOSE CHANGE
JUN 2.8844 +.0289
JUL 2.8824 +.0291
AUG 2.8884 +.0312
SEP 2.8964 +.0321
OCT 2.9032 +.0324
NOV 2.9072 +.0321
 
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