Energy Market Updates

NYMEX jumps as Greece Debt vote Looms

Investors went on the attack today after several sessions of healthy losses and viewed current values as buying opportunities.  As a vote looms on the Greece debt crisis, most are now expecting the Nation will accept the austerity package as stave off pending doom.  As the dollar felt the brunt of this news, NYMEX values skyrocketed in early morning trading.  Yet, citizens of Greece still found the time and energy to riot in the streets.  Interesting news in the US  as Home prices were up slightly for the first time in over 8 months, signally to some a momentum shift in the economy.  Of course, those same speculators disregarded a report that shows consumer confidence dipping yet again.  With Crude inventories expected to fall slightly on Wednesday and the products expected to build, along with the official start of the summer driving season hitting this week, we are lining up for an exciting Wednesday in the Industry.  I would like to believe that cooler heads prevail and we continue our march down.  Remember, one day does not make a trend and the trend is your friend.  At the close, Crude added $2.28 to end at $92.89, HEAT jumped .0608 to 2.8257 and RBOB led the charge gaining .0821 to $2.8896.
 
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     28896       +.0821
AUG    28156      +.0712
SEP    27886         +.0683
OCT    26787       +.0662
NOV     26583      + .0642
DEC    26505      +.0622
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    28257       +.0608
AUG    28415      +.0601
SEP    28609     +.0599
OCT   28814      +.0602
NOV   29018       +.0602
DEC   29214       +.0602
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Greece Debt Crisis pushes Nymex Lower

For the fourth straight day values across the most of the complex have fallen.  This mornings early action was surrounded by ongoing debt concerns in Greece, who announced they needed an immediate $17 billion....yes, billion... dollar infusion in order to meet creditors.  As a result the Euro plummeted and the dollar soared, which pulled money out of commodities.  Many feel that downside may be limited as ongoing concerns of supply disruptions continue and we are knocking on hurricane season.  What is interesting to note about todays session was that Crude actually finished higher by.25 to close at $93.26.  Still Crude values seem low for products being so high.  HEAT fell .0573 to 2.9329 and RBOB lost .0345 to 2.9115.  Or, the products are overpriced for Crude values.  I tend to think the latter scenario is more fitting.  As you may recall it wasn't to long ago that HO was at the 2.80 level.  With todays finish, we continue to be on the back nine of the recent range and would not put it out of the realm of possibility to touch 2.80 in the near future.
Daily Heat Chart
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     29115       -.0345
AUG    28526      -.0368
SEP    28324     -.0375
OCT    27165       -.0357
NOV     26953       -.0351
DEC    26848      -.0341
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    29320       -.0513
AUG    29469      -.0509
SEP    29655     -.0502
OCT   29843      -.0495
NOV   30031       -.0490
DEC   30202       -.0481
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Positive Sales and Demand Data boosts RBOB

Early morning trading pushed all pits higher as news spread of Chinese Crude imports jumping 6%.  With a Market desperately looking for direction, the slightest potential shift in sentiment can have large scale implications.  As the morning moved on, and gasoline demand numbers were reported as an increase of 1.1% over last week, the buyers took early control and never looked back.  Very similar to what happens when you score 4 goals and 6 minutes, a la Bruin nation, it makes for an early day.  The empty netter was a retail sales figure that showed the losses were better than expected only showing a .2% decrease while a .3% decrease was anticipated.  Remember, it is all about expectations.  So it will be interesting to see how Wednesday plays out as most expect for builds across the board with the DOE numbers.  While we are still some 22 cents off the high seen back in early April, we are only 27 cents off the low in early May.  Again this range of 2.85 to 3.35 on Heat while vast appears to be the new normal.  A very hard close pushed values higher with about 10 minutes left in the session.  HEAT was teetering on even ground only to end up .02 to $3.1258, RBOB soared .0678 to $3.0646 and Crude added $2.07 to $99.37, still under the mythical line in the sand of $100 a barrel.

heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     30646       +.0678
AUG    30250      +.0461
SEP    30069     +.0399
OCT    28897       +.0341
NOV     28676       +.0314
DEC    28554      +.0301
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31258       +.0200
AUG    31391      +.0189
SEP    31563     +.0187
OCT   31734      +.0180
NOV   31914       +.0181
DEC   32069       +.0182
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Futures Continue to Rebound on Two Week Rally

If you were to ask me two weeks ago if I thought the HEAT pit would rebound 30 cents after falling 45, I would say its about as likely as a tornado in Massachusetts....  And so here we are!   With what has been an almost two week rally, todays moves looked to be a reaction to the indecisiveness of OPEC.  For that last few years, OPEC has lost much of their mojo and most discounted their pumping policies and mandates as rhetoric.  As with any slow news day, people needed something to jump onto and the report that OPEC was doing nothing had bulls run the table.  That coupled with the DOE report of Crude having a 4.8mbl draw simple let the gates open for a decisively higher session.  Jobless claims increase slightly last week still signaling a troubled economy.  Even the Natgas report that showed an unexpected injection of 80bcf could not derail the upside.  While many see the last several sessions as technical buy backs, it is difficult to maintain the notion that better days are to come as we pop 3 or 4 cents higher everyday.  At the close, Crude maintained above $100 and settled up $1.19 to $101.93, HEAT rose .0441 to $3.1378 and RBOB jumped .0611 to $3.0398.

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     30398       +.0611
AUG    30217      +.0563
SEP    30079      +.0527
OCT    28922       +.0445
NOV     28701       +.0423
DEC    28887      +.0405
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31578       +.0441
AUG    31508      +.0427
SEP    31677     +.0412
OCT   31843      +.0400
NOV   32015       +.0401
DEC   32167       +.0397
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Dennis K Burke at NEFI Boston June 7th & 8th

Dennis K Burke is excited to be an exhibitor at this years NEFI Expo and Energy Summit June 7th and 8th at Boston’s Hynes Convention Center.

The convention will feature exhibitors as well as information sessions on everything energy from Bioheat to securing credit lines to hedging. Of particular interest, there will be a keynote speak by Dave Nazzaro on Bioheat including RFS2 information and market changes. Also, there will be a feature on ULSD and corrosion issues.

For more information on the NEFI expo and how to register, visit the following link:  http://www.nefiexpo.com/

We hope to see you there! Visit us at booth 415

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