Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Tue, Dec 11, 2012 @ 07:23 AM
Once again the NYMEX started off the session well into positive territory with a strong Sunday night open. Much of the gains were attributed to Chinese data released Sunday that showed its Industrial Output rose year over year, signaling stronger demand. But as the day wore on, continued worries about Europe, as the Italian Prime Minister abruptly resigned, appeared to be entering into Traders minds. That fear turned inward as the real concern centers around US distillate demand. Its Common knowledge that inventory levels of distillates are on the very low end of the range, so in the minds of most, the lack of demand is overshadowing the lack of product. Others point that this is just the season to book some profits as traders square up the quarter. I'm pleasantly surprised that we have maintained HO below the $2.95 level, a clear level of support is difficult to define at this time. At the close, Crude fell .37 to $85.56, RBOB was up only 7 points to $2.5981 and HEAT led the charge lower falling .0191 to $2.8962.
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RBOB CLOSE |
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CLOSE CHANGE
JAN 25981 +.0007
FEB 26071 +.0024
MAR 26266 +.0034
APR 27758 +.0041
MAY 27705 +.0035
JUN 27437 +.0020
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HEAT CLOSE |
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CLOSE CHANGE
JAN 28962 -.0191
FEB 29056 -.0184
MAR 29043 -.0178
APR 28923 -.0157
MAY 29227 -.0138
JUN 29095 -.0124 |
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Wed, Jan 26, 2011 @ 09:06 PM
Futures skyrocketed higher today hitting fresh highs on the heels of optimistic feelings about the economy. After the feel good State of the Union speech, a speculative rally ensued early on and never looked back. All this amid a very bearish Inventory report that totally contradicted the API’s and most estimates. Crude supplies added 4.8mbls, gasolines rose 2.4mbls and distillates fell only 140k, a stark contrast to the 5mbls projected by the API’s. The rally carried over into the equities as well that saw the DOW crest above the 12,000 mark for the first time in almost two years. With the FED saying the economy needs a $600 billion bond buying program; it was somewhat surprising to see the rise. Ultimately the pressure put on the dollar today appears to be the underlying fuel for the speculative run. As New England braces for another round of snow and cold, I would not expect to see any decisive moves in either direction in the short term. At the Close, Crude added $1.14 to $87.33, RBOB soared .0879 to $2.4306, erasing yesterdays losses and HEAT jumped .0769 to $2.6698.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Tue, Jan 18, 2011 @ 09:04 PM
As many New Englanders try to find meaning of our meager existence without any football to watch for the next month, reality got slightly worse as we all tried to commute this morning in snow, sleet and rain. The market reacted strongly early on in the session pushing values up over two cents. As the day progressed, eyes shifted towards this week inventories. While Crude is expected to show slight draws, the products are expected to show moderate builds. The news appeared to be just enough to keep values from soaring to 18 month highs. Somewhat surprising was that the reopening of the Alaskan pipeline did not have the same downward effect as the shutting down did to the upside. Bulls appear to be in control for the short term, as the 15 cent jump in value in the last week exemplifies. We thought we peaked out at the 2.55 level on HEAT, only to move higher. Is 2.75 in the cards? The mixed close suggest otherwise, but we heard that song before. Crude closed down .16 to $91.38, RBOB lost .0154 to $2.4792 and HEAT rose .0007 to $2.6459.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Tue, Jan 11, 2011 @ 09:03 PM
Last Friday we were all excited that the NYMEX appeared to be on the verge of its January thaw. Well, a small pipeline leak on the Alaskan north slope over the weekend turned that jubilation into disappointment. Based on reports, a 5 to 7 barrel leak (yes, that’s 210 to 294 gallons) leaked from the pipeline causing the entire line to be shut down. With normal flow rates expected in the next day or so, early morning action had profit takers pushing the pits down almost 2 cents in electronic trading. The forecast for a crippling mid week snow storm in the Northeast had buyers out in full force and turned the session around at the open. Bulls jumped on when reports of diesel demand surged in December, up over 2%. An indicator to some that our economy is moving in the right direction and business can afford the higher prices seen in the last few weeks. All that was lost in value last week was taken back, and then some, in the last two days. Look for Wednesday to be heavily influenced by the Inventories that again are expected to show Crude levels to fall and products to rise. At the end of the day, Crude jumped $1.86 to $91.11, RBOB added .0241 to $2.4784 and HEAT gained .0527 to $2.6088.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Thu, Dec 30, 2010 @ 09:01 PM
With much of the Industry expecting large draws in Crude and distillates due to year end and a relatively cold week across the nation, the surprise build in distillates put immediate pressure across the pits. With the Trade looking for some short term direction, it came in the way of Inventories. Crude fell 1.25mbl vs estimates of a draw of 2.85mbl (bearish) Gasolines fell 2.3mbl vs estimates of a build of 1.5mbl (bullish) and Distillates increase 245k barrels vs estimate of a draw of 625k barrels (bearish). With Bears taking two out of three it was enough to sink the Heating oil pit far enough down making comeback towards the end of the day almost impossible. Interestingly enough, RBOB did make a comeback, after trading down over 3 cents the Front month was able to finish the day marginal positive. Gasoline gained support with the jump in demand figures as well as the drop in jobless claims last week. It will be interesting to see how Friday will play out as the focus again shifts to the economy and how much of an impact the northeast storm had on the historically large shopping day of after Christmas returns and gift card redemptions. At the close Crude fell below the $90 mark dropping $1.28 to $89.84, RBOB added .0014 to $2.3918 and HEAT slipped .0361 to $2.4854
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Wed, Dec 29, 2010 @ 09:00 PM
Today’s NYMEX action could be characterized as being at a 4-way stop sign with every car staring at the other to see who is going to move first, and nobody moves. What started out looking like a good down day after touching some yearly highs, and every news outlet letting us know, the market came back slightly and stayed relatively flat all day. News was light today as the only market pushing piece was that December consumer confidence slipped slightly. With Inventories set to report on Thursday due to the Holiday, expectations are again for draws in all products with support coming from colder weather across much of the nation and increase driving for the holiday. Again, there is nothing earth shattering about this, just a simpletons answer. The million dollar question remains do we move higher or lower from here. Unfortunately most still have not forgotten December of 2007 when we were right around the same level before we skyrocketed $1.50 higher on HEAT to over $4. At the close Crude fell .37 to $91.12, still above the psychological $90 line. HEAT lost 28 points to $2.5215 and RBOB led the charge falling .0152 to $2.3904. Remember Friday is a full trading day but expect little volume.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Wed, Dec 08, 2010 @ 08:55 PM
You wouldn’t know it from looking simply at the closing figures that todays inventory report was initially viewed as wildly Bearish. Confirming last nights API report with a draw of 3.8mbl in Crude, a build of 3.8mbl in gasolines and a build of 2.2mbl in distillates, pits tanked over 3 cents down around 10:30 this morning. The losses were short lived however as others focused on demand numbers that showed some strength. Additional reports of severe cold stretching from Northern Maine to South Florida fed the mid day rally that had HEAT pits dancing in positive ground after lunch. Again, on the surface, it appears the NYMEX wants to go lower, and the $90 resistance level of Crude appears to be holding. But as to why we are not seeing the dramatic falls, like we saw the dramatic rises are beyond my explanation. Even with the large draws in Crude, inventories are still well above last year and a lofty 25mbl over the three year average. As I have said it appears Fundamental analysis is dead. At the Close, Crude slipped .41 to $88.28, RBOB lost .0184 to $2.3046 and HEAT fell only .0095 to $2.4607, this after touching the $2.43 level earlier in the day.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Thu, Dec 02, 2010 @ 08:53 PM
Speaking with an associate today we were amazed to both discover that last year at this time we over 40 cents less than now. But that is ancient history. Today continued yesterdays skyrocketing session that had pits touching year high levels yet again. With Bulls jumping on reports of “Crude averaging $100 over the next year” and “home sales up 10%” it gives the much needed ammunition to buy the rumor and sell the fact. Not that we are in the same scenario as last April, but remember HEAT touched 2.50 and then proceeded to fall to under $2, again, ancient history. Fundamental factors appear to be creeping into the bullish sentiment. Spot gasoline is said to be in short supply in the Northeast due to Venezuela refinery issues and distillates are being fueled by a brash of cold air heading into the Northeast. Its hard to understand the weather issue as I still haven’t put a winter coat on. At the close, Crude added $1.25 to $88 even. RBOB soared another .0549 to $2.3553 and HEAT bolstered another .0490 to close at $2.4546. Time to close our eyes and hope for a fall.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Mon, Nov 29, 2010 @ 08:51 PM
NYMEX futures reached their highest levels in almost two weeks. On the heels of a pre Thanksgiving jump, players got right back at where they left off on Wednesday. Pushing values higher were news of Ireland accepting bailout funds over the weekend and as well as preliminary estimates of better than expected Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. To which I estimate my wife’s contribution to be half! Despite the Dollar gaining against the world basket, NYMEX values continued higher all day without any regard. The mild correction seen over the last two weeks appears to be stalled as Crude failed to break $80 and HEAT never got below the 2.23 level. The HEAT pit looks to be comfortable trading in the 2.25 to 2.45 range. With the bounce tied to an improving economic picture, it will be interesting to see how the markets react to consumer confidence news scheduled to be out Tuesday. At the close, Crude $1.97 to $85.73, RBOB skyrocketed .0743 to $2.2846 and HEAT jumped .0419 to $2.3581.
Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Mon, Sep 20, 2010 @ 08:51 PM
After Fridays close, we were cautiously optimistic that we might have some downside over the next few sessions. That theory was quickly thrown in the garbage can as news spread of the FMOC more than likely keeping interest rates at historically low rates. This appeared to cause a buying spree in all commodities and Crude was no exception. Current idea is that the state of the economy has investors worried, with the FED not moving rates, only solidifies their position. What is odd is that there is data out there that appears to support a more positive economic outlook. One of those is the DOT numbers that showed total miles traveled in July were up almost as full percent. But as we know, that fuzzy grey area between market perception and reality are often much farther apart than we understand. What we do know is that the pits appear to be comfortable within their current range with support still at the $1.95 level and resistance at the $2.25 area for HEAT. At the Close, Crude rose $1.20 to $74.86, RBOB gained .0304 to $1.9496 and HEAT vaulted .0402 to $2.1394.