Energy Market Updates

Iran Halts Diplomatic Exchanges, Diesel Futures Rise

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:59:59 GMT

Well, that escalated quickly. On Friday afternoon tweets of lifting a blockade and free flowing ships had futures continuing their downward spiral. But a few hours later, it was announced that Iran cut off diplomatic exchanges with the U.S. until Israeli troops halted military operations within Lebanon. Tactic? Likely, but it still sent Diesel futures almost $.25 higher in the last three days and forced the U.S. to confirm the Israeli détente. Ship traffic through the strait is down to under 10% after being over 30% last week as Iran seems to still control flow. At home, it’s starting to wear on the average American as sentiment turns more negative after months of inflated cost of goods and services related to higher fuel prices. With a largely symbolic War Powers Resolution passed by the House yesterday, will it send a message to leaders to soften the stance and put an end to the operation? Without the redundancy of US barrels, it is hard to imagine what this would be like. Same goes for your Supplier, having one with redundant supply and hauling options will be critical should this extend further. I know one with 12 guaranteed supply positions and 100 company trucks on the road….

Prices Quietly Slide Thru Holiday Week Sessions

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 28 May 2026 11:28:28 GMT

You would think that a $.60 price drop in the last week would have us excited, but this is now roughly the fourth time we have retreated from a record high on peace news. Although what is interesting is that this most recent drop has come over 5 sessions, over a holiday week, and not a massive drop off a soundbite. To add, it doesn’t appear that any concrete plans have emerged and fighting within the Iranian delegation may prolong any lasting truce. On the bright side, ship traffic through the Strait is roughly 43% of normal, seeing about 25 vessel pass in the last 24 hours. My aluminum hat wearing side thinks this is likely what the US wants. Let Iran self-destruct and quietly return to normal. This coming from a guy who still can’t figure out how to hang up a call on an iPhone.

Again, any return to normal, whatever that is, will take time and there will be bumps along the way. Diesel still sits about $1.50 more than 90 days ago, gasoline about $1. A lot of folks are looking at ways to deal with the increased costs, if adding tank space is in your plan, remember there are regulations to abide by, and we can assist in that discussion.

Iranian Headlines and Export Levels Keep Supply Tight and Prices High

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 21 May 2026 11:43:23 GMT

Recall last summer when the news cycles were reporting the US had “less than 30 days supply of diesel”! Well, expect to hear that again soon as finished diesel inventories now sit at roughly 26 days of supply, where the unofficial warning level is about 30 days. Reality check… that is if everything stopped today, we would have 26 days…. truth is refineries are running at 90% capacity with the vast majority of finished and unfinished products being exported.

Oh, also expect commentary on massive Quarterly earnings from big oil companies. Still futures remain elevated in a market dominated by Iranian headlines, but my senses tell me that it has started to not take the bait on peace talks until concrete plans are approved.

Ships are trickling through the Straits of Hormuz, but again if the full opening happened today you’re looking at about 3 months until world levels balance out. Does that mean that futures will drop the $1.50 overnight? Not likely, but we could see it over a month or two. With the backwardation in pricing, keep an eye out for opportunities farther out.

As always, we are here to assist with any questions or to bounce some ideas around.

From iPhones to Inflation: Volatility Continues

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 14 May 2026 12:15:00 GMT

After 25 years, it finally happened. I made the switch to an iPhone. So I apologize if I hung up on you, called you randomly, or sent an uncomprehensible text. I think ULSD futures have a better chance of dropping $2 in the next week than me figuring this thing out. Likewise, Gas and Diesel are fumbling along the last few weeks, hanging on to every tweet for a glimpse of when normalcy returns. Unfortunately, we are presently on the high side of the curve and the ripple effects of that pricing are making its way into the broader economy. April inflation hit a three year high at 3.8%, with core (no food or fuel) at 2.8%. As we are somewhat removed from tariff effects, these numbers are cause for concern and don’t expect any rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Demand continues to take hits with distillates down 9% to last year and gasoline off by just under 1%. As mentioned when this all started, we are now seeing massive exports of crude and finished products overseas versus US ports that are keeping spot pricing elevated. Still we find ways to operate our businesses effectively and we can always assist. Our free fuel tank monitoring can lighten your load or do you need a fuel tank rental for a short term job? We can help.

Back-and-Forth Iran Talks Keep Markets on Edge

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 07 May 2026 11:45:00 GMT

Once again the market is reacting to the sound bites given on the Iranian ordeal. Late Tuesday night we “were close to a deal”, causing a massive sell off in futures with many of us waking up to ULSD screens down over $.40. Those losses were tempered by yet another clip that stated “it might be too soon for direct talks”. Huh? To quote Vince Lombardi…. “What the hell’s going on out here”? Reality is, vast majority of these talks are through back channels and intermediaries, and only when a deal is agreed upon is when a formal meeting will take place. So expect much of the same until that happens. As expected, a jump in exports will play into pricing as we move forward in this climate. ULSD and JET fuel showed massive jumps in gallons moved overseas, up 23% and 200% respectively. It hasn’t caused any tightness in supply domestically, but as the summer demand increases you may see rack tightness. Not with DKB, as I mentioned, our in tank supply deals guarantee you fuel even in the worse conditions. We always want you to have as much insight into your supply and nightly pricing as possible and we are always willing to answer any questions you have.

US-Iran Talks Stall Amid UAE Exit from OPEC

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:45:00 GMT

Last week we were optimistic that markets would turn south with news that Iran and the US would be meeting over the weekend to hammer out a resolution. That all turned Saturday morning with a tweet that the meeting was off. The past week has shown little in way of the conflict ending anytime soon. A senior meeting at the White House indicated that we could be in for “months” long standoff, and the President stating that he would like the Russian-Ukraine conflict to end at the same time.

As mentioned, Oil flows to where the highest need is and that showed up in Inventory data this week with a massive 56% increase in exports year over year. As domestic demand destruction has made the turn and now on the back nine. The uncertainty prompted FED rates to remain unchanged as inflation risks increase. Adding to the uncertainty globally was the United Arab Emirates announcement they intend to leave OPEC, which hamstrung their production goals. I wish I could say when this will be over, but like my seasonal allergies, the moment you think you’re in the clear, you wake up with a 1000lb head. Either way we are here and always available to guide you through the ever changing landscape.

Strait Confusion Erases Earlier Losses

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 11:21:00 GMT

Apparently the Strait of Hormuz is operating on Bankers hours this week. After a promising $.45 drop on Friday, the reaction to the news has now seen futures take back all of the loss and then some.

We might be starting to see some demand destruction due to high pricing for the end users, as reported in this weeks inventory figures. Gasoline and Jet Fuel in particular showed larger drops in consumption which may indicate changes in people’s daily travel habits as well as a lack of airline business, which can be largely discretionary.

As we sit currently in a ceasefire stalemate with Iran, and ship traffic essentially closed, it will be tough to pinpoint a time when we return to normal pricing. Domestically, inventories of crude and finished products remain healthy. It may result in a period of time where physical diesel and gasoline in the US is less than futures, sounds crazy but it has happened. Even if full traffic started today, the catch up period throughout the world would take some time and a return to normal price levels would also need some time.

We are always willing to discuss your specific needs and assist in any way we can.

Diesel Pulls Back as US Blockade Improves Strait of Hormuz Traffic

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:15:00 GMT

Who said you cant triple stamp a double stamp? In an effort to restart ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the US has begun a blockade of any ships going to or out of Iranian ports. Also attempting to secure passage for all other vessels. Effectively showing Iran they won't be able to fire upon vessels moving through the tight passage. Depending upon which news outlet you listen to, it appears to be working. Those countries who depend on Iranian product like China and India, are now forced into the discussions on some type of resolution.

While Diesel is about $.60 off the highs, we still have a long way to go to normalcy, whatever that may look like. We typically talk about buying opportunities for Q3 and Q4 right now, but with the spike we are in, it may not be the most prudent approach. Seasonal users like Marinas, Landscapers, Golf Course, etc… all will open up the season with much higher fuel prices than in years past. With everything increasing on pricing like Lubricants, DEF, fertilizer, paints, you name it! You need a well-informed, fully stocked, and staffed fuel supplier that can assist you navigate this stretch. We are always available to speak directly on your challenges and offer real life solutions.

Prices Swing as Ceasefire News Fades and Tensions Continue

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:00:01 GMT

Yesterday illustrates perfectly how reactive fuel markets are to world stress. You can look at ULSD futures as the blood pressure reading the financial world. Right now its reading 180 over 120….

As news of a potential cease fire broke and vessels traffic resumes, May diesel futures were down over $.80, settling down $.6690. Gasoline closed down almost $.30. Great to see, but as the day wound down, more news of continued clashes and strait closures surfaced which is preventing another day of larges drops today. Nobody wins with high priced markets and never before seen volatility. Staying informed and having close contact with your fuel supplier is critical now more than ever. I originally thought this would be a 20-30 day event, but as Chris Stapleton says, “I was wrong”. All signs now point that this may drag out longer as demands on both sides seem very far apart. The US approach of bombings will continue until desired results are achieved, historically doesn’t work. It will take regional players and others to step and unfortunately strait traffic will likely be a major bargaining chip. Please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions.

Market Reactions to Iranian Conflict and U.S. Oil Production Dynamics

mark.pszeniczny@burkeoil.com (Mark Pszeniczny) — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 11:59:59 GMT

I have said to many in the last week that even though pricing remained elevated, we appeared to be moving in the right direction. For thirty days the markets have been affected by the exposure of key structural supply elements of our global economy, some say a necessary byproduct of dismantling the Iranian regime. Though the last week or so appeared to be entering into a détente phase as ships started moving and what was perceived as high level talks starting to happen. Most on Monday night were expecting an update with definitive timelines on the end of the Iranian conflict. That didn’t exactly play out like we would have expected….. Instead, the Presidents address gave no clear end date or even a resolution pathway. Instead comparing the conflict timeframe to World Wars, stating we will continue to show force and if countries that need oil from the area, its up to them to go get it. Traders immediately reacted pushing up futures today over $.40 at this time. While we have seen some wild market swings lately, I think this one may take a wee bit to get pulled off. Still, long term, I would think with US production ramped up to capture higher pricing and demand taking a natural hit because of higher pricing, we have to settle down eventually. It is just a matter of when. Either way know DKB is working around the clock ensuring your operation continues to run.